As more red ink fills federal coffers, Congress will focus attention on the federal budget and set deficit-reduction sights on health care programs for the poor and elderly. That means family physicians may see incremental, if any, progress on medical liability reform.
Those are among the conclusions drawn by the AAFP Division of Government Relations and other political analysts as they evaluated the confluence of current economic, political and social trends.
Government relations staff shared their insights with constituent chapter leadership during the State Legislative Conference Nov. 5 - 6 in Savannah, Ga. On Nov. 17 - 18, David Mitchell, partner at GMMB, a Washington-based political and public affairs firm, and J Toscano, GMMB senior vice president, presented an "environmental scan" of the 2005 political landscape to the AAFP Board of Directors in Leawood, Kan. The analysts see a growing concern with deficit reduction that could divert attention from medical liability reform and expanded access to health care.
"The context for almost all important legislative decisions will be budget cutting and cost containment," Kevin Burke, director of AAFP's Government Relations Division, told State Legislative Conference participants.
Medical liability reform faces an uncertain future, according to Burke, Mitchell and Toscano. Despite President Bush's support, the analysts don't foresee great strides on a national level because "the votes aren't there yet in the Senate," according to the GMMB environmental scan. Though the 2004 election added four Republican senators, the new Congress will lack the needed 60 votes to end a possible filibuster on the issue.
Moreover, voters are unlikely to pressure legislators for medical liability reform. Sixty-eight percent of them see access to health care, not medical liability, as the nation's top health priority, according to GOP pollster Glen Bolger and Democratic pollster Geoff Garin.
Analysts also pointed to 8 percent annual growth in state Medicaid costs and predicted some form of cap on the federal match to state Medicaid expenditures. For example, Rep. Joe Barton, R-Texas, who chairs the House Energy and Commerce Committee, has promised hearings on comprehensive Medicaid reform that could include federal block grants or outright caps on federal Medicaid outlays.
FP Report is published by the
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Copyright © 2005 by
American Academy of Family Physicians.