COVID-19 Daily Research Briefs

This report from Imperial College in London and others provides updated estimates of the infection fatality ratio (IFR, deaths/all infections, including mild and asymptomatic) and the case fatality ratio (CFR, deaths/symptomatic or confirmed infections). They estimate a mean duration from symptom onset to death of 18 days, and for survivors the time from symptom onset to hospital discharge of 25 days. They do a good job of trying to adjust for biases in the data due to oversampling of severe cases early in a pandemic, failure to adjust for age, and the lag between case identification and death. The overall IFR is estimated to be 0.66%, and the overall CFR 1.38%. The CFR increases from 0.06% for those in their 20s to 0.15% in their 30s, 0.30% in their 40s, 1.3% in their 50s, 4.0% in their 60s, 8.6% in their 70s, and 13.4% for those 80 and older. The proportion hospitalized increased from 1% in their 20s to 4% in their 40s to 12% in their 60s. Written by Mark H. Ebell, MD, MS, on March 31, 2020. (Source: Verity R, Okell LC, Dorigatti I, et al. Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis) [published online March 30, 2020]. Lancet. https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/laninf/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7.pdf)  

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